The markets have lifted out of correction territory and seem to be back on the rise. We won’t be out of the woods until we break above the all-time highs of January.  A bear market is always a possibility but it seems unlikely with year-over-year earnings up 26% on the S&P500*.  Thus, there is still no recession in sight, largely because of the new tax law.

So, unless your investment objectives have changed, we will continue to monitor and rebalance your accounts as needed.  If those objectives have changed, please make an appointment so we can be sure your investments are aligned with your current investment needs.

As a reminder, save the date for our monthly Lunch and Learn presentations on the 4th Tuesday of every month.  Call for any details.

Now that we are experiencing triple digit temperatures in the desert we hope everyone has some fun vacation plans to visit somewhere cool.  Or, there is always the swimming pool!

Also, Alix is due back from maternity leave the third week of June.

Thank you for your business and referrals.

* Source: https://lpl-research.com/hoc/Charts/QuarterlyUpdates/EarningsDashboard.jpg as of 5/11/18
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The S&P 500 is comprised of approximately 500 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

If you have been watching the news you may think the world is coming to an end.  Is everything spinning out of control:  Deficit budgets, trade wars, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea?  Also, it doesn’t help that the numbers are so large.  We see headlines of -700 points and -400 points along with words like plunge, plummet and crater, which can cause investor unrest when mixed with the drama in Washington.   Are we doomed?  Hardly.  At least no more than usual, but our media often blows things out of proportion, primarily to attract viewers.  We urge everyone to keep things in perspective.

The stock market established new all-time high on the Dow Jones Industrial Average two months ago on January 26th.  Since then the index established a recent low on February 8th when it declined about 10.4%.  Last Friday the Dow dropped to an even lower low, down 11.6% from January’s all-time high.

To keep things in perspective, according to Capital Research and Management Company since 1900 there have been corrections of 10% or more about once a year.   This equates to about once a year lasting an average of 115 days.  The last correction was in August of 2015, so it may have been overdue.

It’s always possible to slip into a bear market but the strong economy and rising earnings make that seem doubtful.  Again, we urge you to keep things in perspective.

Thank you for your business and referrals and we hope to see many of you at the baseball game April 22nd.

 

After a fast start in January the equity markets stumbled in February, which sent the major indices into correction territory.  Since then the markets have been in a period of consolidation and have remained above the February lows.  The economy still appears to be strong and we remain positive and bullish.

Things are getting more “normal” as we near the completion of our transition to LPL.  In that regard, if you receive correspondence from our Operations Team of Lacey, Kataya or Sarah, please respond without delay.  Their email may come from @LPL.com.  They have been working tirelessly to complete what turned out to be a monumental task.  Hats off to our staff!

Speaking of our staff, Stephanie is moving into trading and portfolio management as Alix prepares for maternity leave.  Alix’s new baby will be our sixth in the last four years here at Southwest Investment Advisors.

Save the Date:

Our Spring Client Appreciation Event this year is a U of A baseball game against Stanford on Sunday, April 22nd, so please save the date.  The game begins at 12:00pm so we will be ready to go at 11:00am.

Thank you for your business and referrals.

Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average interrupted its strong run, and thus far is within the fluctuation realm when considered on a percentage basis.  The size of the numbers makes the decline seem far more dramatic than it really is.  Many of the pundits from the media attributed the decline to expected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.  However, on average there’s been a 10% annual market correction since 19001. A correction is defined as a drop of at least 10% but not more than 20%. A bear market is a drop of more than 20%.  Historically, the average correction sends the market down 13.5% and averages 54 days, less than two months.  We believe the markets were long overdue for a pull back, but not a Bear Market.

We see no recession in sight.  Earnings growth and unemployment numbers are healthy.

Due to the recent transition process of our back office from National Planning Corporation (NPC) to LPL Financial (LPL), you could be receiving two sets of year end 1099 tax documents for 2017: one from NPC’s Pershing covering January 2017 through November 2017, the other from LPL covering December 2017.  Both will be available online if you signed up for online access.

You can expect the Pershing 1099s to be mailed on February 15, 2018.  Should a correction be needed, it will be mailed by February 28, 2018.  LPL is expecting to mail theirs also on February 15, 2018.

Due to this transition, we will not receive a copy of your Pershing 1099s here at our office, so it is important for you to retain them.  Now, being at LPL, we will have a copy of LPL documents for future needs.  If your account is held directly with an annuity or mutual fund, you should receive just one 1099.

As always, please let us know if you need help or have questions regarding your tax documents.

Thank you for your business and referrals.  We look forward to a prosperous 2018.

 

1 Forbes: Understanding A Market Correction. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

We hope this letter finds you well.  The transition from NPC to LPL has been a bit bumpy to say the least.  There were some technical glitches in moving everything over, which caused significant delay.  We are aware that, for some accounts, all your holdings were not represented on the December statements.  There has been a lot of progress in the last week and we expect everything to be in good order before the January statements are issued.

Rest assured that nothing is lost!  We are able to see all of your holdings through sources not available to the public.  Thank you for your patience and understanding as we work with LPL to get everything ironed out!

If you have not yet received on-line access to your holdings, please call the office and ask for Sarah, our Client Services Specialist.  She can set up your on-line access as well as assist you with reading your new statements.

The saving grace during all this inconvenience is, we believe, the strengthening economy as reflected in the rising equity markets.

Thank you for your business and referrals.

Happy New Year!  2017 was an impressive year for investors both foreign and domestic. We are optimistic that 2018 will be prosperous as well.  Our economy is growing, unemployment is low, and we expect additional growth as wages and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are spurred by the historic tax overhaul. In short, we see no signs of any recession in the near future. Of course, Bull Markets don’t last forever but as Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

The LPL transition is moving slowly, so we ask for your patience as we navigate through new technology, forms, and compliance.  If you need help with online access, please ask for Sarah.

If there have been any material changes in your investment objectives or financial conditions, please call or come in to review your accounts and make sure we are all on the same page.

Thank you for your business and referrals and we look forward to a prosperous 2018.

As you may have noticed, equity markets have continued to reach new highs as the U.S. economy has been growing for 99 consecutive months, a mark that has only been exceeded two times since 1900. Although there are always the unexpected, current economic leading indicators do not point to a recession anytime soon. We are very pleased with our account performance year-to-date and are happy to meet with you if would like to review your portfolio together.

Regarding our transition, your Pershing accounts will transfer from NPC to LPL during the first week of December. Please be advised that we will not have access to your November statements nor your Pershing 1099’s for 2017, so please retain copies of these when you receive them. You will receive your first LPL statement in December. If you have online access, you will receive new instructions for viewing your accounts once your accounts transfer over.

2017 has been a huge year of growth for Southwest Investment Advisors, so to deliver the best possible service to you we have hired an additional Client Services specialist, Sarah Sbragia. She will help welcome in new clients and assist with paperwork and online access as well as many other service needs. Welcome aboard, Sarah!

Finally, please hold the date of Sunday, December 10th for our annual Southwest Investment Advisors Christmas Party. This year we’ll be at the Arizona Historical Museum at 949 East 2nd Street from 11am to 3pm. Old Saint Nick will be there from 1:30pm to 3:00pm for pictures with kids and the young at heart! As always, food and drinks will be served and we will have access to the museum. Continuing our tradition, we will be collecting unwrapped gifts for the women and children at the Gospel Rescue Mission. Please RSVP to Sarah at 544-2500 or sarah@siatucson.com.

Thank you for your business and referrals.

The purpose of this letter is to notify you of an upcoming change.  On August 15th, 2017, it was announced that the assets owned by our Broker-Dealer, National Planning Corporation (“NPC”) have been purchased by LPL Financial LLC (“LPL”).  LPL is the largest independent Broker-Dealer in the country.

After reviewing several options, we have chosen to affiliate with LPL as our new Broker-Dealer.  The transfer of your account(s) with us will occur on or near December 1st, 2017 at no cost to you.  On or around October 16th you will be receiving information regarding the transfer of your account(s) and your options in this transfer.  Please review this letter but note that there is no affirmative action needed from you unless you choose to not have your accounts transfer with us to LPL.  We will communicate with you more in the future with the timeline and anything that we may need you to do to affect a smooth transition of your accounts.

We are excited about new planning tools and the enhancements we believe LPL will provide to your experience as a client of Southwest Investments.  We take seriously the trust and confidence you have placed in us over the years.  We remain committed to providing you with the high level of service you are accustomed to receiving from all of us here at Southwest Investments and that will not change.   Please call our office if you have any questions or concerns and, again, we will be in contact with you with more information as it arises.

With the Dow Industrials obtaining the 22,000 level, it is obvious that the US equity markets continue to plod upward based on decent earning expectations and healthy employment numbers.  Energy and other commodities have struggled while international equities have out-paced domestic markets after struggling themselves in 2016. Growth has been ahead of value, reminding us that diversification of a portfolio is essential.  So far so good.

Regarding investor fear relative to North Korea and the saber rattling between our two countries, we have commented before that geo-political events tend to be rather short-lived relative to market weakness, as this chart demonstrates.


Source: CNN< Wall Street has resilience, Ned Davis Research

Yesterday it was announced that LPL Financial Holdings is purchasing NPH, which includes our Broker Dealer, National Planning Corporation.  We will keep you posted with any changes that may result from this in the coming months. We are proud that Southwest Investment Advisors has done a respectable job of keeping ahead of industry changes over the years.

Thank you for your business and referrals and have a great rest of the summer.

The U. S. equity markets are near or at record levels and have been quite resilient despite the pessimistic news headlines. Our country is currently experiencing strong consumer confidence and investor optimism, and there’s an expectation of future tax reform and foreign earnings repatriation, despite the negative headlines both economically and politically.

It appears to be human nature, however, to become pessimistic as we age.  In an annual survey between

2002 and 2013, a majority of Americans age 65 and older did not believe the US stock Market would

rise in the upcoming year.  The US stock market as measured by the S&P 500® was up ten of those twelve years (down in 2002 and 2008), gaining +105% in total return for an average of +6.2% per year. (source: University of Michigan, as reported in By The Numbers 05-29-17)

If your investment objectives or financial circumstances have changed over time, market tops would be the best times to make alterations, not market bottoms when emotions might run high. We are available if you would like to meet and review your accounts to confirm your holdings remain aligned with your current investment objectives.

Don’t forget, you are invited to our Lunch and Learn presentation the 4th Tuesday of every month at the Gaslight Music Hall in Oro Valley from noon to 1pm.  We also host Eat and Educate presentations the 3rd Thursday of every month at 5:30 pm at the Red Lion Inn & Suites near Ina and Oracle.

We are happy to announce that Lacey is back from maternity leave and Kataya Plett, the Temp we hired to assist in Lacey’s absence, is now a full-time employee at Southwest Investment Advisors.  In addition, we have a summer intern helping in the office, Bart’s nephew Brett Manor, who is majoring in Financial Planning at NAU.

As always, thank you for your business and referrals.